I talked them through the situation, indicating that these were highly trained fighters coming in. I mentioned the local support Saracen might need to draw upon, alluding to Akan Satayev without actually using the words ‘heroin-trafficking warlord’. When I’d finished, Steiner clicked a mouse and a map appeared on a wall-mounted screen: Kazakhstan divided horizontally by a meandering dotted line. It took me a second to realise what I was looking at, then I felt sick.

‘These are the regions we think the Russians would go for: Akmola, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan.’

I followed the dashed line that signified the Russian border sinking south.

‘Those regions mostly have forty to fifty per cent ethnic Russian population. Then there’s West Kazakhstan and Kostanay which are less clear.’

Piper waved her phone, cleared her throat. ‘Sir Mark Jameson from the Foreign Office is on the line.’

‘Get him a copy of this,’ Steiner said, gesturing at the map as he gathered his papers. ‘I want him to see this.’

The Saracen crew moved as one towards the secure communications area, followed shortly by the others, leaving Walker, Piper and myself. We all stared at the map.

‘The Crimea rerun narrative is strong,’ Piper said, eventually, managing to sound level-headed. ‘We let Russia get away with that. Not again. This is a challenge to the world.’

‘Where did you get the map?’ I asked.

‘Analysts. Does it fit what you’ve seen?’

‘It fits a nightmare. Why exactly is Robert Carter on the phone to the Foreign Office?’

‘Saracen want guarantees, backed up by military commitment if Russia oversteps the line. They’re in conversation with the EU as well, with regards to the pipeline. People are up for this,’ Piper said. ‘It’s a game-changer.’

‘I really wouldn’t push the pipeline-to-Europe angle,’ I said.

‘Not up front, no,’ Piper agreed. ‘In-house perhaps, for Westminster. Energy security.’

‘The whole project cuts Russia off from Central Asia.’

‘Should we shed tears?’

‘They won’t let it happen. They never do. I can tell you at least three similar schemes in the last ten years, all of which led to a protracted conflict and no line.’ I stepped closer to the map and traced the new border with my finger, then down into the empty spaces. There were few population centres. An army could gain a hundred miles with a single battle.

‘Apparently the military base in Omsk has become lively,’ Walker said. ‘A couple of hundred ground forces from Russia’s Central Military District arrived in the last few hours.’ He seemed phlegmatic, the SAS man in his comfort zone. ‘Russia’s Armenian bases have also lit up. Same with the airfield near Bishkek. And we’re getting repeated reports of Russian civilians arming in Kazakhstan. GL5 are holding twenty of them who came near the site: possibly Sigma, possibly amateur local protection units.’