Admiral Howard nodded to himself as he spoke, the Ivy League professor considering an intriguing hypothesis. “That’ll be our opportunity. We’ll find a way to unlock the door rather than try and bash it down. And I’ll tell you right now, my thinking is that we should start considering an attack somewhere other than the Baltics . . . like Kaliningrad. That’s what he’ll least expect. And that’s the way to ensure that the President’s hubris turns inexorably to nemesis.”

McKinlay nodded. He was also instinctively in favor of getting onto the front foot with offensive action, and Kaliningrad, the old, East Prussian port city on the eastern Baltic—once called Königsberg and now a tiny Russian territorial enclave, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland—was a tempting target, particularly if the Russians became bogged down in the Baltics. Indeed, Kaliningrad was the key to the Baltics.

“I like that idea, SACEUR,” said McKinlay, “and you’ll remember that when we war-gamed a Russian attack on the Baltic states, we concluded that the most effective NATO response was to kick the Russians hard between the legs in Kaliningrad. Losing a bit of Russian territory will make the President look very stupid. If we can do that, we might just persuade him to pull out of the Baltics. Rather than go head to head against the Russians and almost certainly start a nuclear war, it would be much better to look for the indirect approach . . . and it could offer the politicians the option of a land swap down the line.”

Howard nodded in agreement and McKinlay continued, “The good news is that the maritime element of the NRF is in a position to respond. We’re only talking about five frigates and destroyers and they’re in the Mediterranean, so it’ll take eight days to get to the Baltic. On top of that, the Brits are getting Queen Elizabeth and an amphibious task group ready to deploy to the Baltic.”

“Now that’s more like it!” Howard was instantly enthused. “That will tie in well. If the Brits wait for the NATO force to arrive, we’ll have a useful package. It would be even better if they came together and waited for the US. We’ve got a carrier group based on the Theodore Roosevelt heading across from Norfolk, Virginia. They’ll be off Copenhagen by the first of June. 6th Fleet is making best speed from the Red Sea and will be on station in the southern Baltic by the fifth of June.”

“OK, Sir. Are you happy to give the executive order to get them moving? As for an attack on Kaliningrad, we’d better get the staff thinking about it right now, even though it will take time to put sufficient forces together. I’ll talk to the Chief of Staff and ask him to start framing the problem.”

“Go for it, Dave. Do it now.”

0440 hours, Friday, May 26, 2017