The Chief of the General Staff also pointed out that, while the Americans may have forward-based tanks and other military hardware in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, it will be impossible to man them with trained crews quickly enough to prevent a Russian grab of the Baltic States. The Russians can dispatch an airborne brigade onto Riga from their aviation base at Pskov, only fifty minutes flying time from Riga. They would be in control of the Latvian capital before any Americans managed to even take off from their base at Fort Hood, Texas. Once the Russians were in control it would be game over. It is one thing to deter an attack with a credible force, quite another to mount an invasion from over 5,000 miles away.

Furthermore, in stark contrast to NATO’s aging armory of attack helicopters, tanks, and artillery—much of it dating from the 1980s and 90s—the Russian army now boasts state-of-the-art equipment, exemplified by the new T-14 Armata tank, first unveiled in the Red Square Victory Parade in May 2015.

But the Chief of the General Staff has also assured the President that Russia’s conventional capability is only there to threaten and intimidate. Of equal importance, and far greater subtlety, Russia has continued to refine its asymmetric or, as they call them, maskirovka (deception) tactics, as deployed so effectively in Crimea three years before; undermining the integrity of a target state from within, but keeping such actions under the threshold that might trigger a NATO response.

Despite warnings from the now very worried Baltic States, NATO has failed to even recognize that maskirovka and undercover operations are being actively used against those member states. They are the next obvious targets and it is only too obvious to them what is going on. To most United States and Western European politicians, however, these are annoying distractions on the far borders of Europe; incidents that rarely merit even a mention in their media. Their more immediate concern is to satisfy their electorates and keep themselves in power.

The President and his advisors in the Kremlin have watched and noted this ever-growing western malaise. So the scene is set for the President to complete his strategic intent: to reunite ethnic Russian speakers in the former states of the Soviet Union under the banner of “Mother Russia.”

PART ONE

Reckoning

1730 hours, Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Kharkiv, Ukraine

AFTER THE DARKNESS and bitter cold of the Ukrainian winter, spring is a time of optimism for the people of Kharkiv. And this Victory Day holiday afternoon was no exception. Warm spring sunshine set off the white walls and golden domes of Pokrovsky Cathedral. In Maxim Gorky Park, groups of students from the many universities in the city played football, or lay on the grass chatting, while extended families gathered to picnic and barbecue to celebrate the holiday.