“Well,” mused McKinlay, “better get me Vice Chief on the secure Brent phone. He at least understands NATO, unlike the Chief of Defense Staff. I’ll see what he says.”

He knew Air Chief Marshal Sir Tony Wilson, the Vice Chief of Defense, well. They’d worked together when he’d been a young, newly promoted lieutenant colonel. Wilson, a serious-minded, upwardly mobile RAF navigator with some NATO experience in Germany, had been a fellow planner in the Ministry of Defense. Sharp, inclined to being abrasive, he nevertheless had a good feel for the Alliance dimension. He was also straight-talking and would tell McKinlay how it looked from the UK perspective.

The Brent phone call was put through, McKinlay heard the familiar bleeps telling him his conversation was secure, then Wilson came on the line.

McKinlay got straight to the point. He outlined the situation in Latvia as NATO saw it and debriefed Wilson on today’s NAC.

“So there’s no immediate prospect of a declaration of Article Five for the moment, Tony. If the Americans decide to do something unilaterally to reinforce Latvia, is there any chance of UK joining them with units you’ve already got declared to the VJTF?”

Wilson confirmed what Swinton’s spies had told him.

“We’re up for it in the MOD. The problem is the PM.”

“The usual issue?” questioned McKinlay.

“Afraid so,” replied Wilson. “He’s surrounded by acolytes to whom the use of force, especially any mention of ‘boots on the ground,’ is anathema at the best of times. But faced with an Article Five crisis, Number Ten has gone into meltdown. The prospect of telling the British people that our soldiers may have to fight and die to defend the Latvians is too much for him. Word has it that it was discussed in Cabinet this morning and his considered contribution was that Britain spends far too much money on Latvia—stag-party beer money—and the Brits who spend it are unlikely to be the sort who would vote for him anyway. His bag carriers thought that was hilarious. On top of that, as we saw with the decision to launch air strikes over Syria, the PM refuses to do anything involving guns and body-bags without a clear House of Commons majority.”

“But he’s got a majority,” McKinlay said.

“Sure, but it’s pretty narrow, notwithstanding that Labour have gone into meltdown since Corbyn was elected leader. The problem is that many of the Tory backbenchers, especially the younger generation, aren’t prepared to back Article Five. All that stuff about Chamberlain in 1938, and why should our boys fight and, if necessary, die for a faraway country about which they know little and care even less.”

“Look how that ended up,” McKinlay muttered, as much to himself as to Wilson. This was no longer the country he had joined the Royal Marines to serve.

“Would a call from Washington help?” he asked finally.