Balderis paused to gather his thoughts and McKinlay guessed his friend was not really as calm underneath as he was showing on the surface. He doubted he would be under similar circumstances.

“Russia has already attacked Latvia by indirect means. Now we must expect something more direct. I think it will come in a very short time. This is the time we need that unconditional support from our NATO friends and allies. If anything warrants a declaration of Article Five, it is this. Where is it?”

McKinlay felt that he was personally letting his friend down. Balderis had looked after him so well when he had spent a couple of weeks in Latvia last year, running the war game. Then, as scripted, NATO had of course declared Article 5. Now it was for real and NATO had not.

“Raimonds, I am not going to raise false hopes. Today’s NAC was a disaster. The Germans insist on an attempted political solution before there can be any declaration of Article Five, or any question of military deployment. I’m about to talk to SACEUR in the States and then I’ll be on the line to the UK, France and Denmark to see if they can’t get things moving unilaterally, on a national basis.”

Balderis allowed himself a touch of irony. “Our grandparents would never have believed that the mighty Fatherland—Germany—would one day be the most pacifist nation in Europe.” He gave a bitter laugh. “To paraphrase Bismarck, they clearly think the Baltic states are not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian Grenadier. Thanks, David. I know you’ll do what you can.” And with that the line went dead.

“SACEUR’s coming on to your Tandberg secure video link now, Sir.” Sergeant Lorna Bevin placed on his desk a mug, resplendent with the Globe and Laurel badge of the Royal Marines, and brimming with steaming, strong tea. “And seeing as you missed lunch, here’s a couple of biscuits.”

“Thanks, Lorna, you’re a star.”

“Hi, Dave.” SACEUR came through on the Tandberg from Washington. “I’ve heard about the NAC. What a mess. I’m about to head over to the White House. The National Security Advisor has called me over to talk to the President. What can I tell her?”

McKinlay was blunt. NATO was about to fail to protect one of its members and a number of European members appeared more worried about political process than recognizing that, for the first time since 1945, they were on the edge of a major war in Europe; two NATO members, Greece and Hungary, seemed almost pro-Russia and even if they hadn’t yet invaded, which looked imminent, the Russians were effectively attacking Latvia right now. McKinlay then concluded with a bald statement: if the Alliance were not to fail catastrophically, and thus be rendered redundant in one stroke, Article 5 had to be declared.