“And if this were not enough, we have seen unprecedented military activity on the borders of Latvia and our Baltic neighbors. Our history tells us never to trust Russia. It was Count Shuvalov, a Russian who was Governor General of what were then the Baltic Provinces in the Tsarist Empire one hundred and fifty years ago, who said, and I quote: ‘The historical mission of the Baltic provinces is to serve as a battlefield for the problems of the highest politics in Europe.’ Please, my fellow ambassadors, we have no desire to be Russia’s battlefield once again!”

He stopped, overcome with emotion. He had the attention of all.

“Our memories are long. Latvia has only existed as a sovereign state for two decades between the world wars of the last century and once again since 1991. So, we are all too aware of the fate which is in store for us if we fail to deter the Russians this time. We firmly believe that, unless NATO declares an Article Five emergency and provides immediate military, diplomatic and political support to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, then Russia will attempt to take over the Baltic states. Secretary General, I call upon the allies to accept that an attack is taking place on Latvia right now and therefore to agree to implement Article Five.”

He stopped, sighed, took off his spectacles and sat back. Silence reigned in the NAC Chamber. After a pause, Secretary General Kostilek called upon the Estonian and then the Lithuanian ambassadors to speak. Both spoke in turn, equally eloquently and equally persuasively.

Kostilek turned to the Chairman of the Military Committee. “General Vahr, can I ask for the advice of the NATO military authorities, please.”

“Secretary General, I regret that the Military Committee is unable to agree a common line due to different views among nations. I therefore propose we ask DSACEUR for his military advice.”

Kostilek nodded and turned to McKinlay. “General, the floor is yours.”

McKinlay cleared his throat. “Thank you, Secretary General. In line with the direction of the NAC, the NATO military authorities have spent much time considering the nature of Article Five in the twenty-first century. We recognize the dangers of viewing it through Cold War spectacles. So, ladies and gentlemen, we must no longer think of an attack on a NATO member in terms of massed Soviet tanks invading across the Inner German Border, or biting off a chunk of northern Norway, as we did back in the Cold War days. This means the Latvian ambassador is right. The military assessment is that what we are seeing is a new form of state-on-state war in which, gradually, the Russians will ramp up the pressure on the target state, in this case Latvia, while remaining under the threshold of what would traditionally generate an Article Five response from NATO. The best way to stop this crisis from getting out of control is to meet the Russians with strength.”