Then he became brisk and to the point. “Thanks for your initial report on yesterday’s events; very helpful. We’ve distributed it widely around PJHQ and in Whitehall. There’s a lot on the wires about what happened yesterday and we’re picking up some worrying developments on the Russian side of the border. But first, fill me in on some of the detail behind your sitrep and give me a feel for the atmospherics. And the question I want to get to the bottom of is the extent to which this whole thing was fomented by agents provocateurs, Russian or otherwise.”

Morland quickly summarized what he and the team had witnessed yesterday, then focused on the Baltics team leader’s question.

“Sir, there’s no question that what happened yesterday was orchestrated. The way the demo boiled over was certainly the result of a carefully planned and professional operation. I’m as certain as I can be that those marshaling the demo are part of some sort of self-protection militia set up by the ethnic Russians. I’m also pretty sure that, thanks to Marina and the Latvian Intelligence Service, we know the individual who is behind it.”

“Go on,” said Graham.

“I’m talking about the guy Marina pointed out to me—he’s the man the Latvians have been watching—the fellow in the photo we sent through last night on the data link; black fleece, dark hair. A tough-looking bastard. I suspect he’s Special Forces, possibly FSB. I’m as certain as I can be that I watched him give the order on his mobile for the snipers to take out the Russian girls. And I’m also pretty certain that what I heard was a VSS sniper rifle, followed by a burst of AK47 as cover or deception. I fired a VSS on the range only last week when the Latvians gave us a demo of Russian weapons.”

“Roger that, Tom. We’ve got the J2 intel analysts working on the image now. We’ve also got our people crawling through the TV footage of the shooting as that might help confirm your analysis. That was good work.”

“I assume GCHQ are trying to track down his mobile number. I’ll bet there’s a link with the numbers we gave you earlier. He made the call around ten minutes after I took his picture and the time is recorded on the photo.” Morland looked at Allenby on the screen inquiringly.

“Don’t worry, Tom. We’re on the case.”

“We’ll check that, too. I’ll give you some direction in a second. Now, we’ve got some stuff on the strategic picture which you need to hear.” Graham turned to Dingley. “Over to you, Jerry.”