“Vladimir Vladimirovich, you’re correct that the Baltic naval and amphibious force is largely American, but not entirely. The British have deployed their Commando brigade headquarters in HMS Albion, an amphibious ship, together with a Royal Marine commando, while the Dutch have committed a marine battalion in the Rotterdam, their amphibious ship. Besides that, the British have also deployed HMS Ocean, a helicopter carrier, together with all the escorts they can muster. Add to that the French carrier, Charles de Gaulle and a number of escorts—frigates and destroyers—from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Denmark and Belgium, to say nothing of, probably, hunter-killer subs from UK, France, Germany and, of course, America. So, the European members of NATO can certainly say to each other that they’ve stepped up to the mark. And, that is what our informants tell us they are saying to each other at leader and foreign minister level. The key point to make here is that, even with all their command and control problems, this force is significantly bigger than our Baltic Fleet. And that would be worrying if we thought that they were ready to risk nuclear retaliation, which . . .”

“They are not,” said the President interrupting, ignoring Gareyev’s concerns. “What about the divisions under the NATO corps in northeast Poland?”

“The strongest by far is the US Fourth Infantry, but on top of that there is the UK’s Third Division with a British armored brigade and a French Foreign Legion light-armored brigade. We’ve also just heard that the Italians are sending the Ariete armored brigade, which has always had a very close relationship with the ARRC. Most of the combat support—the artillery, engineers, reconnaissance and other support—is British, but with a fair representation from a number of other nations. And, of course, every nation will be contributing logistic units to support their own people.”

“And the Germans?”

“Yes. We’ve all been surprised by the Germans. First Panzer Division is now deployed and ready to roll in northeast Poland. And it’s strong. It has also been reinforced by the Polish Tenth Armored Cavalry Brigade.”

“Poles fighting alongside Germans. That must be a first. We certainly have united the Alliance . . .”

The President’s attempt at a weak joke was met by an awkward silence around the table.

Even a fortnight ago, Komarov thought, there would have been guffaws of fawning laughter. Not now, though, as the size of the forces building up on their border and the magnitude of their potential military miscalculation began to sink in.

Quickly the President moved on. “What do you assess is NATO’s intention?”