Komarov could see Merkulov choose his words with care. After all, he was known for owing his survival and promotion both in the KGB and the FSB to his well-judged ability to think ahead and, above all, to avoid boxing himself into a corner.

“With their military losses in Latvia, America is now probably locked in, like it or not, Vladimir Vladimirovich,” he replied. “The new President, Turner Dillon, is a relatively unknown quantity, but the character picture we have been building up suggests she will be cautious about committing herself any further. Although she was very critical about Obama’s foreign policy weakness during the election campaign, the reality is that America has never regained the face lost when Obama stepped back from his so-called red line over chemical weapons in Syria, or when you checkmated him, again in Syria two years ago, by attacking American-backed rebel forces and so helped stabilize Assad’s position. That was the moment for America to show its resolve and face us down. They did nothing except complain. However, as with any unknown quantity, and as we both know from harsh experience, Vladimir Vladimirovich, Dillon may yet surprise us. She already has with her decision to send those troops to Latvia. A foolish decision, but an unexpected one nevertheless. And one, I fear, with consequences . . .”

The President looked troubled, but Komarov knew he was too reliant on Merkulov’s unwavering loyalty, and that of his feared FSB, to press him further. “What about NATO . . . Now that we’ve sunk two NATO ships?”

“On the face of it, Vladimir Vladimirovich, these sinkings are indeed unfortunate. It is now as certain as it can be that Germany will sign up to Article Five and be joined by the other wobblers, particularly France, which usually follows Germany. UK has been weak and irresolute in its foreign policy under Prime Minister Spencer for some years now, but it is likely that the sinking of a British ship will force him to present a bold front. As for Greece, it remains dependent on German support to underwrite its loans, so the Greeks probably feel obliged to follow Germany. Much as they hate it, they cannot afford not to. Nevertheless, let me reassure you. You have completely wrong-footed NATO and demonstrated conclusively the Alliance’s failure to take the necessary measures to defend the Baltic states. The simple fact is that, even if all the nations now agree on Article Five, you are in complete possession of the Baltic states. NATO can do nothing except invade and they are hardly likely to risk a general war in Europe to do that. Even if they had the forces, which they do not. You have effectively outmaneuvered them.”