“We weren’t able to pull them out in time. They will inevitably have been involved in defending the air base alongside the Latvians. So it is highly probable that American military personnel have either been, or are currently, in ground combat with the Russians. There’s no way they would have been able to put up more than a token resistance, as they were only carrying their personal weapons. I guess we can expect to see the survivors paraded on Russian TV pretty soon.”

MacWhite paused to let the words sink in.

“So, on top of the US aircraft shot down over eastern Ukraine, we’ve now had US aircraft in combat and shooting down Russians, and US military personnel are on the ground in Latvia and probably also in combat with Russians.” Dillon had recovered her poise. “Sounds to me like we’re in it . . . like it or not.”

“Dead right, ma’am. But don’t forget one thing . . . in each case the Russians fired on us first. But it’s not only Latvia, ma’am,” continued MacWhite, as Bear brought up a different file of satellite pictures on his laptop. “The Russians have also attacked the international airports at Tallin in Estonia and Vilnius in Lithuania. As you will see, the intelligence picture we are building suggests that we may well be witnessing a full-scale invasion of the Baltic states. Put bluntly, it makes no strategic sense for Russia to bite off chunks of these small countries. The President has always made it plain that he wants the Baltics back and I fear that is what we’re seeing here.”

MacWhite, who could also see the screen, paused to let Dillon study the pictures on Bear’s laptop. As he scrolled through the grainy, indistinct images of Russian troops and aircraft, Dillon looked at the screen intently, saying nothing.

“Next photo please, Bear.”

Bear clicked the mouse.

“We’re pretty sure that this is an amphibious task force en route out of St. Petersburg. Most likely destination? The west coast of Estonia or the Gulf of Riga to reinforce the land invasion. The Russians will be keeping their options open, depending on where they enjoy most success or where they meet resistance. So far, and be under no illusions,” concluded MacWhite in his characteristic drawl, “it’s slam dunk to the President.”

Even though he had already been through the photographs and discussed what they meant with MacWhite on the helicopter to Camp David, Bear still found it hard to believe the reality of what the President was now looking at on the screen. It was as if he was back at Leavenworth, at the School of Advanced Military Studies, playing a part in “The Strategic War Game,” the concluding exercise of the course.