“War is unpredictable,” said Bean. “And the costs are high. But we didn’t put Armenia where it is, surrounded by Muslims.”

“God did,” said the President. “So we try not to complain.”

“Why can’t Israel be your provocation?” asked the Prime Minister. “They are militarily much stronger than we are.”

“The opposite is true,” said Bean. “Geographically their position is and always has been hopeless. And they have integrated so closely with the Muslim nations surrounding them that if they now joined the FPE, the Muslims would feel deeply betrayed. Their fury would be terrible, and we could not defend them. While you—let’s just say that over the centuries, Muslims have slaughtered more Armenians than they ever did Jews. They hate you, they regard you as a terrible intrusion into their lands, even though you were here long before any Turks came out of central Asia. There’s a burden of guilt along with the hatred. And for you to join the FPE would infuriate them, yes, but they wouldn’t feel betrayed.”

“These nuances are beyond me,” said the President skeptically.

“They make an enormous difference in the way an army fights. Armenia is vital to forcing Alai to act before he’s ready. Right now the union with India is still merely formal, not a fact on the ground. It’s a marriage, not a family.”

“You don’t need to quote Lincoln to me.”

Petra inwardly winced. The quote about “a marriage, not a family” did not come from Lincoln at all. It came from one of her own Martel essays. It was a bad sign if people were getting Lincoln and Martel confused. But of course it was better not to correct the misattribution, lest it appear that she was way too familiar with the works of Martel and Lincoln.

“We stand where we’ve stood for weeks,” said the President. “Armenia is being asked too much.”

“I agree,” said Bean. “But keep in mind that we’re asking. When the Muslims finally decide that Armenia shouldn’t exist, they won’t ask.”

The president pressed his fingers to his forehead. It was a gesture that Petra called “drilling for brains.” “How can we hold a plebiscite?” he asked.

“It’s precisely the plebiscite that we need.”

“Why? What does this do for you militarily except overextend your forces and draw off a relatively small part of the Caliph’s armies?

“I know Alai,” said Bean. “He won’t want to attack Armenia. The terrain here is a nightmare for a serious campaigning. You constitute no serious threat. Attacking Armenia makes no sense at all.”

“So we won’t be attacked?”

“You will absolutely be attacked.”

“You’re too subtle for us,” said the Prime Minister.

Petra smiled. “My husband is not subtle. The point is so obvious that you think it couldn’t be this that he means. Alai will not attack. But Muslims will attack. It will force his hand. If he refuses to attack, but other Muslims do attack, then the leadership of the jihad moves away from him to someone else. Whether he strikes down these freelance attackers or not, the Muslim world is divided and two leaders compete.”