With the adjusted 1961 census population as the base and with the following assumption of the birth and deaths, the population of Bangladesh in July 1, 1970 should have reached to around 72.4 million.1 With a 3.3 per cent rate of population growth per annum this population would have reached to 73.6 million on January 1, 1971. An assumed half a million deaths due to December 1970 cyclone would have brought the total size down to 75.1 million on January 1, 1971. An assumed yearly rate of growth of 3.3 per cent (without extra mortality) and an assumed extra deaths of three million due to the direct and indirect effect of the Pakistani army crackdown in Bangladesh during the occupation period of March 25 to December 16, 1971 would have brought the population size down to 72.5 million on January 1, 1972. At the assumed rate of growth, this population would rise to 74.9 million on January 1, 1973. The above calculations have been made without taking into account of the external migration. If it is assumed that the net emigration from Bangladesh during February 1, 1961 to January 1, 1973 would be around one million, the actual size of the Bangladesh population on January 1, 1973 would be around 73.9 million persons.2 For the rest of the plan period a yearly rate of population growth of over 3 per cent can be reasonably assumed. At merely 3 per cent rate of increase, 73.9 million population on January 1, 1973 will rise to 76.1 million on January 1, 1974; 78.4 million on January 1, 1975; 80.8 million on January 1, 1976; 83.2 million on January 1, 1977 and 85.7 million on January 1, 1978.

Appendix F

The Political and Institutional Issues

The politics of the SAGQ (South Asia Growth Quadrant) relationship and the specific implications of Bangladeshi labour being absorbed into the labour scarce economies of the north east of India merits discussion. If the north east is to grow to its full potential, it is conceivable that its own domestic labour force would be insufficient. This suggests that there is scope for temporary migrant labour from Bangladesh coming in on labour permits for fixed periods or to do specific tasks, as in the case of such labour flows to the Middle East. This review should explore the political acceptability and cultural sensitivity of the north east to temporary migrants, the scope for regulation, and the ability to contain abuse. Without full acceptance by the indigenous populations of the north east, such an agenda is a non-starter.

Careful attention thus needs to be given to the salience of both bilateral political pathologies which have constrained relations within South Asia. Here again the specific problems of the north east of India merit special attention. It would be both naive and counter productive to plan agendas for either the SAGQ or the BBIMN (Bamgladesh Bhutan India Myanmar Nepal) as if economic optimization were the only issue to be considered.

Source: Rehman Sobhan, Tranforming Eastern South Asia, Centre for Policy Dialogue, The University Press Limited, Okhla, 1999, p.165.

Appendix G