Topham nodded. ‘With the best will in the world, Penelope,’ he said, ‘intelligence can be flawed. People lie, they make mistakes, they betray you. We don’t go in until I have men from Hereford physically verifying the precise location of the hostages – I mean which room, in which building. I also need to know the enemy’s strength, his capability, his weapons systems and dispositions. I want forming-up points identified. I want individual assault positions located. I want the route-to-target from the helicopter landing site proven.’ He paused. ‘I could go on, but I’m sure you get the picture.’

‘How many men?’ said Morgan.

‘The initial Recce Team would be a four-man patrol.’

‘Only four men?’ said Morgan, a look of alarm passing over her face. ‘For how long?’

‘Impossible to say, but potentially several days.’

‘On their own? That sounds very dangerous.’

‘Everything we do is dangerous,’ said Topham, with a smile. ‘That’s kind of the point.’

‘Yes, I suppose so,’ said Morgan. ‘But what if they get caught?’

‘We’d need to have the Counter Terrorist Squadron nearby to support them if they were compromised – I wouldn’t advocate any plan which didn’t give them the best chance of survivability. But, even so, if it all really goes south you’re tossing a coin.’

‘How do you mean?’

‘Heads the CT guys get there in time. Tails they don’t.’

‘And if they don’t?’

‘Four dead men.’

Morgan blanched slightly, and Topham smiled again.

‘It’s the nature of the beast, Penelope,’ he said.

‘I see. And these four men – they’d call in the rescue?’

‘Yes. We’d launch from sea in helicopters and put down at an HLS, well away from the target. The main assault force would walk in from there.’

Penelope Morgan sat back and looked at him. ‘How many soldiers?’

‘Sixty, in three Chinooks.’

‘Casualties? From the main assault?’

Topham shrugged. ‘There’s a possibility that we would lose men, yes,’ he said. ‘Perhaps even a strong possibility. It’s a multifactional country, Penelope. Everyone has weapons, they’re all vying for a piece of the pie, and you can’t tell the bad guys from the good.’

‘Could we lose an entire helicopter?’ said Penelope Morgan.

‘We might,’ said Topham, carefully. An airborne assault, flying into territory awash with MANPADs and other ground-to-air weapons systems, always presents significant challenges. We saw what happened to the Spanish heli, and that was over the Med. Now, Chinooks are exceptional aircraft – they’re quick and surprisingly agile, they have a good defensive suite, and forward-looking infra-red, and the pilots are the best in the RAF, maybe the world. But they’re big, and they’re noisy, and they’ll wake all sorts of people up. There’s no getting around that.’

‘So we could lose one?’

‘Yes, we could,’ said Topham. ‘Worst case.’

‘Twenty men?’

‘Plus aircrew.’

Mark Topham took a sip of his tea.