"That's reassuring," Narmonov said dryly. "Nice of him to let us know about the alert."

"We know," Golovko said, "and he must know that we already know."

"He does not know that we know the extent of his alert," the Defense Minister said. "He cannot know that we are reading their codes. The alert level of their forces is more than precautionary. The American strategic forces have not been at this readiness status since 1962."

"Really?" Narmonov asked.

"General, this is not technically true," Golovko said urgently. Their ordinary level of readiness is very high for American strategic forces, even when their military posture is Defense Condition Five. The change to which you refer is inconsequential."

"Is this true?" Narmonov asked.

The Defense Minister shrugged. "It depends on how you look at it. Their land-based rocket force is always at a higher level of alert than ours because of the lower maintenance requirements of their rockets. The same is true of their submarines, which spend far more time at sea than ours do. The technical difference may be small, but the psychological difference is not. The increased level of alert tells their people that something horrible is underway. I think that is significant."

"I do not," Golovko shot back.

Marvelous, Narmonov thought, two of my most important advisors cannot agree on something this important

"We need to reply," the Foreign Minister said.

PRESIDENT FOWLER:

WE HAVE NOTED YOUR INCREASED ALERT STATUS. SINCE MOST OF YOUR WEAPONS ARE IN FACT POINTED AT THE SOVIET UNION WE MUST ALSO TAKE PRECAUTIONS. I SUGGEST THAT IT IS VITAL THAT NEITHER OF OUR TWO COUNTRIES TAKE ANY ACTION THAT MIGHT SEEM PROVOCATIVE.

"That's the first time he didn't have it canned," Elliot said. "First he says "I didn't do it," now he says we better not provoke him. What's he really thinking?"

Ryan looked over the faxes of all six messages. He handed them to Goodley. Tell me what you think."

"Pure vanilla. Looks like everyone is playing a very cautious game, and that's what they should be doing. We alert our forces as a precaution, and they do the same. Fowler's said that we have no reason to think they did it - that's good. Narmonov says both sides should play it cool on provoking the other side - that's good, too. So far, so good," Ben Goodley thought.

"I agree," the Senior Duty Officer said.

"That makes it unanimous," Jack said. Thank God. Bob, I didn't know you had it in you.

Rosselli walked back to his desk. Okay, things appeared to be more or less under control. "Where the hell have you been?" Rocky Bames asked.

"Hot Line room, things appear to be fairly cool."

"Not anymore, Jim."

General Paul Wilkes was almost there. It had taken nearly twenty minutes to get from his house onto I-295 and from there to I-395, a total distance of less than five miles. Snowplows had barely touched this road, and now it was cold enough that what had been salted was freezing to ice anyway. Worst of all, those few D.C. drivers who were venturing out were showing their customary driving skill. Even those with four-wheel-drives were acting as though the additional traction made them immune to the laws of physics. Wilkes had just passed over South Capitol Street, and was now heading downhill towards the Maine Avenue exit. To his left, some maniac in a Toyota was passing him, and then came right, to head for the exit into downtown D.C. The Toyota skidded sideways on a patch of ice that front-wheel drive didn't master. There was no chance to avoid it. Wilkes broadsided the car at about fifteen miles per hour.