“All worried the other guy will throw the first punch. The British are convinced there will be war with Germany. They know that the German Army is immense, and the German military has the Kaiser’s ear. Ear, hell, the Army and the Navy have the Kaiser’s heart and his blessing!

“The Germans are convinced there will be war with England because England will not tolerate an expanding German Empire. The British know that defeating the German Navy would not guarantee victory, whereas the defeat of the British Navy would spell the end to England’s overseas empire. If that weren’t enough, the Germans suspect that Russia will attack them to derail a revolution by distracting their peasants with a war. If that happens, the Germans fear, Britain will side with Russia because France is allied with the Russians. So Germany will force Austria and Turkey onto their side. But none of these idiots understand that their alliances will cause a war like no one’s ever seen.”

“That bleak?”

“Fortunately for us, none of them want the United States as an enemy.”

“Which is why,” Bell said, “I wonder if England and Germany are attempting to make the United States think the other is their enemy.”

“That’s precisely the kind of byzantine talk I heard on the ship,” said Archie. “You have an evil mind.”

“I’ve been hanging around the wrong crowd lately.”

“I thought it was that Yale education,” said Archie, a Princeton man.

“Courting the United States to be their ally, England and Germany could each secretly be maneuvering to make their enemy look like our enemy.”

“What about the Japanese?”

“Captain Falconer claims that anything that loosens the European footholds in the Pacific will embolden the Japanese. They’ll stay out of it as long as they can and then side with the winner. Frankly, he seems possessed by a fear of the Japanese. He saw them up close in the Russo-Japanese War, so he thinks he knows them better than most. He insists they’re brilliant spies. Anyway, to answer your question, we’ve had a Jap under surveillance for a week. Unfortunately, he gave us the slip.”

Archie shook his head in mock dismay. “I go away for one little honeymoon, and the detective business goes to hell. Where do you suppose he is?”

“Last seen on the railroad ferry into New York. We’re combing the city. He’s the best part of the case. I need him badly.”

“GOT THE REPORT on Riker and Riker,” Grady Forrer reported when Bell got back to headquarters. “On your desk.”