“Redeployed how?” she asked.

“The most obvious thing for them to do would be to abandon the other occupied systems and concentrate on Trevor’s Star. That’s absolutely their most vital system, this side of the Manticore System itself. Next in priority would be Grayson. To be honest, the Grayson Navy scares me almost as much as the RMN, these days. All the intelligence indications are that High Ridge has managed to alienate Grayson pretty thoroughly, but I don’t think it’s bad enough that Grayson would refuse to come to Manticore’s assistance. Some of my planners do think that, but they’re wrong. Unfortunately, that’s one more argument in favor of hitting the Manties hard, fast, and with as much surprise advantage as we can generate. Given the current tension between Grayson and the Star Kingdom, Mayhew would almost certainly have to stand fast, at least initially. Not only would he have his own system’s security to worry about, but I doubt very much that Janacek and Chakrabarti have bothered with any of the preliminary planning that would be required to get the GSN effectively deployed quickly enough to hamper our operations. If those operations can be concluded on the timetable we’re projecting.”

“Can they be?”

“Obviously, I think it’s possible or I wouldn’t be pursuing the possibility. And I’ve tried to strike the best balance I can between allowing for the unavoidable friction that’s going to slow us down and refusing to let concern over that paralyze the planning process.”

“But as I say, all of this is predicated on our getting in the first punch, and that’s the part that worries me the most.”

Pritchart arched an eyebrow, inviting explanation, and he rubbed the scar on his cheek while he looked for exactly the right words.

“We can virtually guarantee ourselves the advantage of surprise,” he said finally. “All that would be required would be for us to attack the Manties while we’re still negotiating with them. The only problem is that if we did that, we might very well win all of the battles and still lose the war because of the long-term diplomatic and military consequences. The instant we did something like that, the galaxy at large would conclude that we’ve decided to go back to the same policy of expansion as the old People’s Republic. And not just as far as foreign nations would be concerned. The very people right here at home we’ve been trying to convince to believe in the restored Republic would come to exactly the same conclusion. That could be an awful high price to pay for defeating the Star Kingdom.”

“Yes, it could,” she agreed quietly. She sat thinking for several seconds, her eyes distant, then refocused on him.

“What exactly are you trying to tell me, Tom? I know you’re not just rehashing all of this to hear yourself talk.”

“I guess what I’m saying is that, first, we need to do everything humanly possible to find a solution to our problems short of war. If it comes down to using force, though, our best chance is Case Red. But if we’re going to execute Case Red, then we need to do it in a way that doesn’t echo the old Duquesne Plan. Our diplomacy needs to make it clear that we’ve done more than merely go the extra kilometer trying to achieve a peaceful resolution. To make Case Red work, we’re going to have to redeploy and preposition a lot of our fleet to execute an unexpected offensive… but we can’t execute that offensive until the Star Kingdom fires the first shot or at least breaks off negotiations. We just can’t do it, Eloise. I won’t do it. Not after how much blood you and I have shed to prove we’re not the People’s Republic.”