“Of course I don’t think she’s stupid enough to think any other outcome is possible,” Descroix said. “But you’ve seen the analyses of their public discussion about Trevor’s Star. At least a very large minority—possibly even a majority—of their public opinion has fastened on Trevor’s Star as the symbol of all our ‘evil’ ways. That makes it an issue that would play well to her voters, and she knows we know that. Which, in turn, gives her threat at least a hint of credibility. And the fact that we may believe she’ll have no choice but to concede the issue in the end doesn’t mean we might not be willing to make concessions of our own elsewhere to have the Republic bless the annexation. It would defuse potential future disputes over possession of the system and knock any move by a later Havenite administration to regain it on the head. Maybe even more importantly, if the Republic were to formally concede that a legitimate San Martino planetary government had voluntarily asked to join the Star Kingdom, it would help to calm any fears among our allies—or the Sollies—that we might be planning on embarking on a career of conquest by force of arms. She knows that could be extremely valuable to us. So taking the plebiscite offer off the table is a way of warning us she has ways to punish us if we don’t meet her demands.

“At the same time, she’s actually opened the door to further concessions on her part.”

“She has?”

“Of course she has! Didn’t you notice the bit about recognizing our traditional concern for the security of termini of the Junction?” Descroix demanded. The Prime Minister nodded, and she shrugged. “That’s very close to offering us the same arrangement we enjoy in Gregor. Admittedly, that sort of arrangement falls far short of anything we could finally accept, since we’ve already asserted outright sovereignty over the entire system, so I suppose it could be argued that it’s actually a ploy to avoid recognizing that sovereignty. But it also moves at least one step towards us, and I think it’s a way of signaling us that she’s still open to a settlement on the system which we can accept. And the offer to cede those naval bases in the systems around Trevor’s Star is probably another. She’s showing us the carrot at the same time as she’s trying to beat us with the stick, Michael.”

“And this business about the possible recall of her negotiating team for ‘consultations’? That’s more of the stick?”

“Mostly. It’s not as subtle a threat, though. Especially not coupled with their admission of their improved naval capabilities.”

“You think they might seriously contemplate breaking off the negotiating process completely if we don’t begin caving in?”

“Probably not permanently,” Descroix said slowly. “I think Pritchart might consider doing that temporarily—long enough to make her point. But I doubt that she’s any more eager to start shooting at us again than we are to start shooting at them.”