"Several things, sir.  It could simply be a major naval exercise aimed at testing their ability to close our sea lines of communication and our ability to respond, both on short notice.  We reject this possibility for several reasons.  It's too soon after their autumn naval exercise, CRIMSON STORM, and they are only using nuclear submarines; no diesel-powered boats seem to be involved.  Clearly speed is at a premium in their operation.  And as a practical matter, they do not run major exercises at this time of year."

"And why is that?" the president asked.

Admiral Foster answered for Ryan.  "Mr. President, the weather up there at this time of the year is extremely bad.  Even we don't schedule exercises under these conditions."

"I seem to recall we just ran a NATO exercise, Admiral," Pelt noted.

"Yes, sir, south of Bermuda, where the weather's a lot nicer.  Except for an antisub exercise off the British Isles, all of NIFTY DOLPHIN was held on our side of the lake."

"Okay, let's get back to what else their fleet might be up to," the president ordered.

"Well, sir, it might not be an exercise at all.  It could be the real thing.  This could be the beginning of a conventional war against NATO, its first step being interdiction of the sea lines of communication.  If so, they've achieved complete strategic surprise and are now throwing it away by operating so overtly that we cannot fail to notice or react forcefully.  Moreover, there is no corresponding activity whatever in their other armed services.  Their army and air force—except for maritime surveillance aircraft—and their Pacific Fleet are engaged in routine training operations.

"Finally, this could be an attempt to provoke or divert us, drawing our attention to this while they are preparing to spring a surprise somewhere else.  If so, they're going about it in a strange way.  If you try to provoke somebody, you don't do it in his front yard.  The Atlantic, Mr. President, is still our ocean.  As you can see from this chart, we have bases here in Iceland, the Azores, all up and down our coast.  We have allies on both sides of the ocean, and we can establish air superiority over the entire Atlantic if we so choose.  Their navy is numerically large, larger than ours in some critical areas, but they cannot project force as well as we can—not yet, anyway—and certainly not right off our coast."  Ryan took a sip of water.

"So, gentlemen, we have a Soviet missile submarine at sea when all the others, in both oceans, are being recalled.  We have their fleet at sea with orders to sink that sub, and evidently they are chasing it in our direction.  As I said, this is the only conclusion that fits the data."

"How many men on the sub, Doctor?" the president asked.

"We believe 110 or so, sir."