"If this intelligence is correct . . . I'd say we have a good chance, perhaps as good as fifty percent.  On one hand, we have a missile submarine attempting to evade detection.  On the other, we have a great deal of ASW arrayed to locate her, and she will be heading towards one of only a few discrete locations.  Norfolk, of course, Newport, Groton, King's Bay, Port Everglades, Charleston.  A civilian port such as New York is less likely, I think.  The problem is, what with Ivan sending all his Alfas racing to your coast, they will get there ahead of October.  They may have a specific port target in mind.  We'll know that in another day.  So, I'd say they have an equal chance.  They'll be able to operate far enough off your coast that your government will have no viable legal reason to object to whatever they do.  If anything, I'd say the Soviets have the advantage.  They have both a clearer idea of the submarine's capabilities and a simpler overall mission.  That more than balances their less capable sensors."

"Why isn't Ramius coming on faster?" Ryan asked.  "That's the one thing I can't figure.  Once he clears the SOSUS lines off Iceland, he's clear into the deep basin—so why not crack his throttles wide open and race for our coast?"

"At least two reasons," Barclay answered.  "How much operational intelligence data do you see"

"I handle individual assignments.  That means I hop around a lot from one thing to another.  I know a good deal about their boomers, for example, but not as much about their attack boats."  Ryan didn't have to explain he was CIA.

"Well, you know how compartmentalized the Sovs are.  Ramius probably doesn't know where their attack submarines are, not all of them.  So, if he were to race about, he'd run the off chance of blundering into a stray Victor and being sunk without ever knowing what was happening.  Second, what if the Soviets did enlist American assistance, saying perhaps that a missile sub had been taken over by a mutinous crew of Maoist counterrevolutionaries—and then your navy detects a missile submarine racing down the North Atlantic towards the American coast.  What would your president do?"

"Yeah," Ryan nodded.  "We'd blow it the hell out of the water."

"There you have it.  Ramius is in the trade of stealth, and he'll likely stick to what he knows," Barclay concluded.  Fortunately or unfortunately, he's jolly good at it."

"How soon will we have performance data on this quiet drive system?" Carstairs wanted to know.

"Next couple of days, we hope."

"Where does Admiral Painter want us?" White asked.