‘Really? And what about the rapid growth of his army? The encroachment on our border? His hatred of England is implacable. He will not rest until we are driven out of the subcontinent. He hates us just as his father did before him, and just as his sons will do when they inherit the kingdom.’ Arthur paused a moment, before moderating his tone. ‘Mr Webbe, please, listen to me. England is the only chance India has to become something better than it is. For hundreds of years its people have been ground down by one wave of warlords after another. Any opportunity that these people have had to develop their lands against a background of peace and order has been stolen from them by warlords and brigands. It’s time that their situation changed. If England can exert its influence over the entire expanse of India, then in the long term its people, and the East India Company, can only profit from the results. Men like Tipoo stand in our way, and in the way of his own people. The Governor General does not want this war. I swear it, on my honour. He would far rather achieve his ambitions by peaceful means.’

‘Then why prepare so ardently for war?’

‘Because the Tipoo is firmly resolved to fight us.’ Arthur suppressed the anger that was welling up inside him and took a deep breath before he resumed. ‘I imagine you’ve placed a wager at some point in your life, Mr Webbe.’

‘Yes. What of it?’

‘Then hear me out. Tipoo may or may not intend to declare war on us, agreed? If we prepare for war and it turns out that he has no desire to attack us, then what has it cost us? Money.That’s what. A lot of money, I grant you, but nothing the Company won’t recover from future profits. But if it is Tipoo’s intention to attack us, and we are not ready to face him, because we have not made the necessary preparations, however costly, then we lose everything. Not just the chests of gold and silver in the vaults beneath Fort St George, but also the priceless reputation England currently enjoys amongst the natives. Not to mention tens of thousands of lives - yours and mine amongst them. Now then, on that basis, what would a reasonable gambling man decide to do?’

‘All very neatly argued, Wellesley, but what of the third possibility? That he might have no intention of attacking us, and that we might therefore save ourselves a considerable sum of money by not preparing for an attack that won’t happen.’

‘It’s possible,’ Arthur admitted. ‘But what are the odds of that? Would you bet your life on such odds?’