‘Sir.’ Marcius left, and Hadrian turned his mind to the letter he was writing to Trajan. The wording was delicate, and at the same time had to appeal to the princeps’ preference for direct, soldierly reports. In it Hadrian spoke of his certainty that war was coming:

Decebalus is preparing and breaking every part of the treaty. Apart from his attack on the Iazges, his envoys go about the tribes of the whole area, bribing with gold and promising more. His forts are being rebuilt, his army trained and deserters welcomed with rich reward. It is only a question of when he will strike rather than if, and at present our garrisons are spread out and weaker than they should be, with so many men detached from the standards on other duties.

That was a nice touch, for it was an obsession of the emperor that units were depleted by the demands of communities and officials for officers and men as escorts or to police roads and cities.

In the past, Decebalus and other Dacians have launched unprovoked surprise attacks on our provinces and allies, and it is surely most likely that they will do the same once again. An attack using one of the mountain passes – or by the king’s allies across the plains against Moesia Inferior – could get across the Danube and lay waste a wide area before sufficient soldiers can be gathered to stop it.

Hadrian wondered whether that was quite right. He wanted to show a rare insight without too accurate a prediction, which might raise questions as to why he had not done more or spoken up sooner.

I have arranged to revictual the garrison at Piroboridava, which included veterans from Legio I Minervia and a strong force of Britons recruited in the wake of the troubles in that province several years ago. The post is commanded by Flavius Ferox, centurion of II Augusta on detached service, and in spite of his humble origins he appears to be a capable officer. Yet this fort is isolated, and the only one guarding the road leading directly to Dobreta and the works there.

Was that all too specific? By the time the letter arrived in Rome Hadrian had little doubt that the war would have begun, and he was sure that he was right and one of the main attacks would strike first at Piroboridava heading for the great bridge. Perhaps there was a way of hinting at all this and he would need to think about it.

Timing was the key. Hadrian wanted Trajan to receive and read the letter only a few days before the first news of the outbreak of the war reached Rome. That way it would do little to change the emperor’s plans, but should stand out fresh in Trajan’s memory as a lone voice of clarity and sense in all the shock and confusion.

Decebalus has grown strong once more and will soon reveal himself as the enemy of the res publica. I humbly suggest that strong forces be concentrated here on the Danube under your personal supervision to deliver the much deserved – and I am sure final – punishment.