Equally, we do not necessarily benefit when things are going well. Twice during my writing career I have suffered serious downturns in my literary fortunes. These were brought about by titles going out of print, by sales of translated editions not materializing, overall by poor sales figures. Some of my books were markedly less successful than others. Both periods brought me hardship. I had to borrow money, Jo and I tightened our belts, we abandoned various plans for trips or holidays, we put off carrying out repairs to the house.

This is an illustration, not a hard luck story. Both of these personal downturns occurred at times when the general economy was said by seigniory market analysts to be booming. Inflation was under control, unemployment was low, house prices were rising, expensive holidays were being enjoyed by almost everyone else.

The difference is that in economic terms books are slow moving. This acts as an informal buffer against money-market madness.

For example: I started the novel I am writing now about three months ago, and it will take a few more weeks or months to finish. There will be a delay while the publisher decides whether or not to bring it out, but assuming all goes well the publisher will pay the usual small advance and eventually set a date. That is likely to be over a year and a half later. In short, the manuscript I’m working on now will not be published and on sale in bookstores until about two years after I began it. Any royalty income arising from the book will not reach me until about a year after it is published. The book trade rewards its authors slowly.

It is not of course my only book. The novel whose proofs I have recently read and returned was mostly written last year. It will be published early next year. Income from that will follow several months later.

I have a novel out at the moment, on sale in bookshops. Assuming the shops stay in business and ordinary people spend their meagre cash allocation on some copies (not a likelihood at the moment, I have to admit), I will eventually receive an income from it. That book was completed more than two years ago.

The slow production methods, and the sometimes unpredictable sales, mysteriously accounted for, therefore have a spreading effect. The novel of mine currently on sale in the shops is likely to suffer, but the next one might be launched into a more expansionary economy. The one after that – who knows? Things could be better, they might be worse. They have been both for me in the past. This does not mean I can be complacent.