An unclassified draft preface to the seven scenarios describes them as "illustrative" of the demands that might be placed on the U.S. military in coming years, adding, "They are neither predictive nor exhaustive."

The Lithuanian scenario judges the likelihood of war with Russia as "low," but goes on to say that economic and political tensions "could compel political leaders to make decisions that appear irrational" and asserts that a Russian invasion of Lithuania "is plausible in light of recent events in the former Soviet Union."

More striking to analysts inside and outside the government has been the Pentagon document's description of Lithuania as a "U.S. vital interest." The language of vital interests traditionally describes something that the U.S. government would use military force to protect. Though applying the term to Lithuania, the document, titled "1994-1999 Defense Planning Guidance Scenario Set for Final Coordination," does not propose to represent current U.S. policy.

National security officials outside the Pentagon sharply disputed the scenario's premise, noting that the United States never recognized the Soviet Union's World War II conquest of the Baltic states but steered clear of interference there for fear of nuclear war.

ANNUAL REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT AND THE CONGRESS, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, February 1992-Special operations forces are essential contributors to strategic deterrence and defense. The ongoing proliferations of weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them threaten to erode strategic stability . . . SOF

special reconnaissance and direct action capabilities can help to locate and destroy storage facilities,_control_nodes,_and other_strategic assets. . . SOF are one of the few instruments available to precisely apply measured force to deal with an adversary's nuclear weapons capabilities.

ASSOCIATED PRESS, 12 March 1992-Russia's vice-president confirmed Wednesday that nuclear weapons are stored in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the former Soviet republics embroiled in a vicious conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

It was not known what kind of nuclear weapons were in the republics, although they are assumed to be tactical-or "battlefield"- weapons.

BEE NEWS SERVICES, 13 March 1992-Ominous new concerns were raised Thursday about the safety of the former Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal when Ukraine said it has stopped returning nuclear weapons to Russia for dismantling.

...

Perfilyev [advisor to the Russian vice-president] accused Kravchuk [Ukrainian president] of using nuclear weapons to prove Ukraine's independence, and said that Russia would react harshly.

Note

T

his story is not intended to chronicle or explain actual U.S. government, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Special Operations Command, or military contractors' tactics, doctrines, procedures, equipment, or capabilities. The scenarios, units, equipment, and tactics described in Night of the Hawk are purely products of my imagination. I have made every effort to be accurate, but this is a work of fiction and none of the persons, units, equipment, scenarios, or tactics I describe are intended to accurately depict the real thing. I hope I've done our special operations forces some justice (at least so they won't be out gunning for me!), but my intention was not to tell their story for them. I hope to be qualified to do so someday.