The current political situation in the old USSR was confusing, complicated, and extremely dangerous. The new Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) had replaced the USSR in 1992, but the new entity was more of a collection of bickering ministers than any sort of true union. The Red Army had disbanded, split along ethnic or religious lines, but the splits were inequitable and destructive: the Russian Army found itself with most of the skilled technicians and almost all of the officers but no one willing to do the "menial" tasks, while the armies of Belarus (Byelorussia), Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-the three most powerful members of the CIS besides Russia-were left with few well-trained, knowledgeable leaders but a lot of soldiers with little technical training or formal education. To say it was a mess was an understatement.

But all four republics still had one thing in common: nuclear weapons. Despite the Commonwealth's initial pledge to destroy its intercontinental weapons, move all tactical weapons to the Russian interior or into storage, and place the remaining ones in joint command, no republic was willing to give up the nuclear weapons inside its borders unless the other republics gave them up first. As a result, no one gave them up. All four republics-Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia-had intercontinental-range nuclear weapons and the skilled soldiers to use them.

Officially, the role of the United States government in regard to the fledgling Commonwealth was simple: encourage democratic reforms and a free market, but otherwise hands off. The Commonwealth had pledged to adhere to treaties already in force between the U.S. and the old USSR, and that satisfied the White House for the time being. Talks on new trade agreements between the Commonwealth, the individual states, and the U.S. and other countries were laid, in preparation for full diplomatic recognition and lifting of all trade barriers. World markets were eagerly awaiting the millions of new consumers being unleashed by the republics; everyone seemed willing to overlook the devalued, nearly worthless ruble (the adopted currency of the CIS) and bet that the future was going to be much brighter.

The White House feeling in private was much different: monitor the nuclear weapons and military movements in all Commonwealth-member

republics and develop strategies and doctrines for dealing with a possible breakup of the Commonwealth and a loss of central control for each republic's nuclear arsenal. For the Central Intelligence Agency, that meant stepping up covert operations in the various republics, especially the strategically and politically important Baltic states.

That's where Paul White and MADCAP MAGICIAN came in.

The radar operator aboard PATRIOT read off his position, altitude, surveillance track, date-time group of the surveillance run, and his equipment status-all in encoded format, even on the secure anti-eavesdrop channel-then continued: "Nearest vessel of interest is off your port beam, range three point one nautical miles, possible ELINT vessel. Numerous smaller vessels all quadrants appear to be at anchor, adrift, or moored to navigation aids, none considered a mission risk. Largest vessel in projected flight path confirmed identity as ferry Baltic Star. Additional vessel, the LoPresti, west-northwest of your position, is scheduled to rendezvous with you in approximately twelve hours. He is just leaving port at this time."