But, more than fifteen years on from Diana’s death, there is little doubt that there would be no more popular winner of the race than the Queen’s horse. The intervening years had seen the public regain its trust and affection for the monarchy, as first her Golden Jubilee and then her Diamond Jubilee had been hugely popular occasions. The Queen, now aged eighty-seven, and Prince Philip, ninety-two, have come to symbolise stability in a world that has been rocked by wars, terrorism and a lingering financial crisis that has diminished the status of politicians everywhere.

As the race unfolds, Estimate is lying in fifth place with half a mile to go. Then Ryan Moore drives Estimate into the lead and fights tenaciously to hold off the Irish stayer Simeon to win by a neck. The stands just erupt in celebration and the crowd throws their hats in the air, so delighted were they to see the royal colours carried past the winning post. People rush to get a position around the winner’s enclosure so they can get the best view of what is to come. Even the normally staid occupants of the royal box explode with cheering. The Queen is so overwhelmed with delight that her racing manager, John Warren, almost does the unforgivable and kisses her, as they clap their hands with joy as the four-year-old crosses the line.

The Queen had been due to present the trophy to the winner, but instead the Duke of York had to step in to hand the cup to her. It was one of the very few occasions when the Queen was seen to be overcome with emotion. Peter Phillips said afterwards: ‘It’s been amazing. This is her passion, this is her life; every year she is here, every year she strives to have winners, and to win the big one at Royal Ascot means so much to her and so much to her supporters. It’s the culmination of a lot of investing in sport and to see this result is just brilliant. Sheikh Mohammed came down to congratulate her – racing people understand that these things don’t happen every day and to have a win like this is truly, truly special.’

Racing and the breeding of thoroughbreds mean so much to the Queen. The previous year, her Christmas cards showed the Duke of Edinburgh presenting her with the trophy after Estimate, then a three-year-old, won The Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. The Queen takes a keen interest in the breeding of her horses, and is the patron of the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association. She decides which mares are to be bred to which stallions and makes regular visits to observe and assess her foals first hand from birth.