The banner running along the bottom of Sky News read: ‘Estonia: Kremlin calls attacks a “provocation”.’ It was emblazoned over footage from late last night of a mob wielding sticks and attacking a group of protesters in the centre of the Estonian border town of Narva.

The presenter, a slim woman with riotous blonde hair and the cadaverous air of someone who hasn’t eaten properly for a decade, was talking to her political editor, a slim young man who looked like he was filling in between school and Cambridge. ‘Well, the temperature seems to be rising rapidly,’ the young man said. ‘As you know, this all started when a group of men tried to pull down a statue of Lenin in the Estonian border town of Narva. Some of the local ethnic Russian population protested and were then attacked. Now, in the last few minutes, we’ve seen the Center Party in Tallinn, which principally represents Estonia’s quite substantial Russian minority, issue a highly provocative invitation to the Kremlin to formally intervene – militarily, if necessary. Russian people are simply not safe in Estonia, it says. No word from the Kremlin in response, yet, but Estonia is of course a NATO ally and, under its Article Five, an attack – or a threat – on one is an assault on all.’

‘So what has been Downing Street’s response?’

‘It’s early in the day, of course, and I understand there is to be a Cobra meeting within the next few hours, but the briefing I received a short time ago suggests that the prime minister’s overwhelming mood is likely to be one of caution. In the words of one source in Downing Street, it’s not worth risking World War Three over a few punches being thrown in Estonia. But the Germans and the French are taking a much more robust line and I guess we’ll wait to see exactly what emanates from the White House in the course of the day.’

‘Would it be overly cynical,’ the presenter asked, sitting back in her chair with a sly smile, ‘to cast our minds back to those allegations in the leadership election six months ago that the prime minister might in some way have been . . . how shall I put it? . . . compromised by the Russians – and to worry that this could be a factor?’

The political editor permitted himself an equally sly smile back. ‘I think it’s a thought you would whisper very quietly, unless you wanted to earn the PM’s undying enmity. “Trash of the social-media age” is what they call all that in Downing Street. But opposition MPs will, no doubt, level the charge at him once again that he is in some way Moscow’s stooge.’

Kate switched off the television and went to shower. By the time she was out, she had a message from Sir Alan warning that the Cobra meeting had been brought forward to 8 a.m., so she left an apologetic note for Fiona, asking her to make sure she got her brother on to the bus with her for school, and caught a cab direct to Whitehall.